who has a bully for a parent? That’s the problem we have right now with North Korea. So seriously how do you do it?
Here’s the situation in brief. North Korea has killed roughly 50 South Koreans this year. They torpedoed a South Korean boat and then they shelled a South Korean island. North Korea is also aggressively attempting to build nuclear weapons that can reach the United States. South Korea is finally angry about the military aggression, reversing a usually blind-eye tactic adopted by previous South Korean presidential regimes since the war ended. South Korean citizens are putting a lot of stress on their leaders to do something about the North Korean aggression. The U.S. has treaties with both South Korea and Japan that basically say we have to defend them in the event of an attack. If North Korea were to collapse as a country or be re-joined with South Korea, it would likely mean a large number of refugees poring over the border into China. China has a growing economic relation with South Korea that is proving to be very beneficial to it.
That’s the basic playing field. The problem: North Korea won’t stop pushing. North Korea is playing the part of the spoiled bully. With China looming over them they’ve been able to get away with basically murder in the past. They occasionally slap South Korea around, although not as boldly as they are now, and everyone comes to the table and negotiates with them instead of retaliating. To pull the analogy further South Korea is like the U.S.’s child in this scenario. North Korea is China’s (Although hilariously, from a race relation standpoint, that would be a huge faux pas). North Korea beats up South Korea. South Korea comes home bruised up. The U.S. asks “What happened!”. South Korea spills the beans. We call China. China tells us to “Shut your damn mouth and don’t you try and tell me how to raise my child!” The U.S. can’t just beat up North Korea (You can’t hit a kid, it just won’t fly) so instead we teach South Korea how to fight. South Korea finally decides it doesn’t want to get beat up anymore.
The real question is: How bloody will it be when it goes down and what will China do? Given the fact that the North Koreans spend an awful lot of their money on guns and ammo (military spending) I doubt they will go down without much of a fight. The South Koreans will want us to help, but we know that if we throw even a single punch then China will come running and screaming out of the house with curlers in it’s hair and a rolling pin in it’s hand and well try and bash us over the head. No, we’re going to have to stand back and hope the South wins AND hope the Chinese don’t intend to throw a punch at the South because then the U.S. has to come running and screaming out of the house with the rolling pin. The only “good” outcome is a quick war whereby the South annihilates the North’s military command structure in one fell swoop leaving the North un-prepared to counter strike.
Of course we could try and avoid this whole war thing, but attempts to talk with North Korea in the past are very much like lecturing a child who thinks that their parent is fine with what they are doing. So I ask you people out there with kids, what can be done about a situation like this. We’ve already gone so far as suspended the kid from school and warned all the neighbors not to let their kids play with him (a.k.a. U.N. sanctions and U.S. imposed economic sanctions), but it doesn’t seem to matter much. Is there a war to resolve this without a whole ton of Koreans dying?
A revolution within North Korea, although unlikely, would probably have the lowest death count if successful. If not successful, though, it may be the highest.
If all of the Il’s were assassinated in a short period, there’s a chance a less insane ruling team would take over. Of course, there’s also the chance a *more* insane ruling team would take over, but if power changed hands like that, there’s also the possibility that their relations with China would deteriorate to a point where the US could intervene safely.
The only surefire way to avoid war at this point is if economic relations between South Korea and China become so good that China gets on North Korea’s back about antagonizing South Korea. Unfortunately, that would take a long time, and North Korea might push the issue far before that’s even a hopeful option.
Sadly, Korea is basically f***ed. At some point, something unforgivable is going to be done and there’s going to be a war. My only hope is that we *don’t* have to get involved, because if there’s one thing we really don’t need right now, it’s another major military theater. Having two at once has ripped countries apart in the past, and three is just insane.
The problem with even a bloodless revolution in North Korea is China. If a revolution occurs and the end point is anything but communist in nature then it is likely that China will become involved, much like we have in South America. China can barely stand our relations with Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. They would not be able to tolerate a democracy/republic on their own border because such a democracy/republic would almost certainly attempt to ally itself with South Korea and the U.S., or attempt to unify with no concessions to China.
However, like you mentioned, an internal revolution is highly unlikely unless it comes from within the military due to the overwhelming military strength inside the country. And a military coupe will almost certainly end in a dictatorship of some kind allied with China and we’re back to square one.